嘉善县1988-2012年甲状腺癌发病趋势分析

Analysis of incidence on thyroid cancer in Jiashan from 1988 to 2012

目的：分析嘉善县甲状腺癌25年发病情况及其流行趋势。方法：提取嘉善县肿瘤登记报告系统收集的1988—2012年甲状腺癌病例资料，计算甲状腺癌发病率、中国人口标化率（简称中标率）、世界人口标化率（简称世标率）以及发病率年度变化百分率（annual percent change，APC），分析发病率变化趋势。结果：1988—2012年嘉善县新发甲状腺癌420例，其中男94例，女326例，男女性别比为1：3．47，X2=88．3，P〈0．001；甲状腺癌占全部肿瘤发病的构成比为1．72％，在嘉善县癌症发病构成中位居第14位；粗发病率为4．45／10万，中标率为2．72／10万，世标率为3．22／10万；APC值为14．50％，95％CI为10．60--18．54，Z=8．073，P＜0．001。男性中标率和世标率分别由1988—2002年的0．48／10万和0．66／10万上升至2003—2012年的2．15／10万和2．52／10万，X2=55．37，P〈0．001；女性中标率和世标率分别由1988—2002年的1．21／10万和1．40／10万快速上升至2003—2012年的8．30／10万和9．66／10万，X2=251．81，P〈0．001。甲状腺癌占女性全部恶性肿瘤发病的3．44％，在该县女性癌症发病构成中位居第10位。结论：嘉善县甲状腺癌发病呈明显上升趋势，尤其在女性已成为排列前10位的常见恶性肿瘤，应实施有效的防治措施，控制其不断上升态势。

OBJECTIVE：To analyze the incidence on thyroid cancer in Jiashan in the past 25 years. METHODS：Cases diagnosed as thyroid cancer in 1988--2012 in Jiashan were extracted from Jiashan cancer registry system, and the inci- dence, age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by Chinese and World standard population, and the incidence rate of an- nual percentage change （APC） were calculated to analyze the incidence trends. RESULTS：There were 420 cases diagnosed as thyroid cancer from 1998 to 2012 with the sex ratio of 1 ： 3.47 （94 males and 326 females;xz =88.3,P（0. 001）. Thy- roid cancer accounted for 1.72% of total cancers with the APC of 14.50% （95% CI= 10. 60 -- 18.54, z= 8. 073, P〈 0. 001） and ranked fourteenth in the incidence of cancer in this county. The crude incidence of thyroid cancer was 4.45/ 105 ,Chinese age-standardized rates were 2.72/105 , and World age-standardized rates were 3.22/105. Among males, the Chinese and world age-standardized rates increased from 0.48/105 and 0.66/105 from 1988 to 2002 to 2.15/10s and 2.52/ 105 from 2003 to 2012 （X2 =55.37,P〈0. 001）. Among females, the Chinese and world age-standardized rates increased from 1.21/105 and 1.40/105 from 1988 to 2002 to 8.30/105 and 9.66/105 from 2003 to 2012 x2 =251.81,P〈0. 001）. It took the tenth place being 3.44 % of all the female malignancies. CONCLUSION： The incidence of thyroid cancer increases rapidly in Jiashan,and it has been the top 10 malignancies among females, Falling for more control efforts on its upward trend.