大连市区1991-2010年膀胱癌流行趋势分析

Epidemic trend of bladder cancer incidence from 1991 to 2010 in Dalian City

目的：分析大连市区1991—2010年膀胱癌流行趋势，研究膀胱癌发病变化水平及流行特点，为流行病学研究提供基础信息。方法：利用1991—01—01～2010—12—31大连市中山区、西岗区、沙河口区、甘井子区和旅顺口区5区全人群203万常住人口（其中城市人口96．3％，市郊人口3．7％）恶性肿瘤数据库中的膀胱癌新发病例资料，分析组织学类型，计算粗发病率、世界人口调整发病率（简称世调率）、截缩率、累积率和年度变化百分率（annual percent change，APC），进行年龄、时期和队列3个因素相互调整后的相对危险性（relative risk，RR）和95％CI的估计。结果：大连市区1991—2010年流行趋势概况，男女性粗发病率分别为14．1／10万和3．8／10万，世调率分别为10．4／10万和2．5／10万，35～〈65岁调整截缩率分别为11．75／10万和2．84／10万。0～〈75岁累积率分别为1．27％和0．30％，0～〈65岁累积率分别为0．48％和0．10％。时间趋势分析结果显示，男女性粗发病率的APC分别为＋6．93％和＋7．36％，P值均〈0．001；调整发病率的APC分别为＋3．36％和＋3．67％，P值均〈O．01。流行趋势分析结果显示，男女性年龄在≥35岁发病风险有增加趋势，P〈O．05；时期发生于2001—2005年和2006—2010年发病风险有增加趋势，P〈0．001；队列发生在1956年以后出生队列发病风险有降低趋势，P％0．05。结论：大连市区膀胱癌发病水平处于同期中国肿瘤登记城市地区较高水平。女性发病率的上升幅度高于男性。

OBJECTIVE：To analyse the epidemic trend of bladder cancer （EC） in Dalian and investigate the incedence and epidemiological features,to provide basal informations of epidemiological study. METHODS：The EC regiatration data collected during the period of 1991-01-01--2010-12-31 were used to analyze the histological type and calculate the crude rate （CR）, World age-standardized rate （WASR）, truncated rate （TR）, cumulative rates （CR）, annual percent change （APC）. The age, period, cohort, relative risk （RR） and 95 % confidence interval were estimated. RESULTS： In outline of prevalent trend from 1991 to 2010 in Dalian city,the CRs were 14.1 per 100 000 for males and 3.8 per 100 000 for fe- males,and the WASRs were 10.4 per 100 000 for males and 2.5 per 100 000 for females. The TRs of those aged 35--65 were 11.75 per 100 000 for males and 2.84 per 100 000 for females. The TRs of aged 0-- 75 were 1.27 per 100 000 for males and 0.30 per 100 000 for females,The TRs of aged 0--65 were 0.48 per 100 000 for males and 0.10 per 100 000 for females. In analysis of time trend the APCs of CRs were ＋6.93% （P〈0. 001） for males and ＋7.36%for females （both values of P（0. 001） ,and the APCs of WASRs were ＋3.36% for males and ＋3.67% for females （both values of P〈 0.01）. In secular trend for males and females,the risk of EC increased constantly above 40 y（P〈0.05） ,the group of 2001 --2005 and 2006--2010 were obviously increased than that of 1991--1995 （P〈0. 001）,for those cohorts who born after 1956, the risk of Ee decreased gradually （P（0.05）. CONCLUSIONS：The trend of incidence of bladder cancer in Dalian lo- cates in a relatively higher position compared to the other Chinese cancer registration areas. The APCs for females are higher than that for males.