启东市1972-2011年胃癌发病趋势分析

An Analysis of Incidence Trend of Stomach Cancer in Qidong, 1972-2011

[目的]探讨启东市1972-2011年胃癌发病率变化趋势。[方法]基于启东市1972-2011年癌症发病登记数据库,对胃癌发病率作性别、年龄别、时间趋势分析,计算指标包括粗发病率、中国人口标化率（中标率）、世界人口标化率（世标率）、35-64岁截缩率、0-74岁累积率、累积风险、变化百分比（PC）及年均变化百分比（APC）等。[结果]1972-2011年启东胃癌发病15 401例（男性9804例,女性5597例）,粗发病率为34.26/10万,占全部癌症发病的16.60%,位居癌症发病第2位。中标率和世标率分别为16.25/10万和25.59/10万;35-64岁截缩发病率为40.03/10万;0-74岁累积发病率为3.15%,累积风险为3.10%。40年间胃癌发病的粗率、中标率和世标率的变化百分比（PC）分别为＋21.90%、-55.32%与-51.20%,年均变化百分比（APC）分别为＋0.49%、-2.12%、-2.06%。各时期胃癌发病率显示25-74岁各年龄组的发病率有下降趋势。年龄—出生队列方法分析显示,25-79岁各年龄组出生队列发病率有下降趋势。[结论]启东胃癌40年粗发病率总体维持在较高水平,但标化发病率已呈下降趋势。启东人群中胃癌的进一步下降,是可以预期的。

[Purpose] To investigate the incidence trend of stomach cancer from 1972 to 2011 in Qidong. [ Methods ] The cancer registration data of 1972-2011 were collected and analyzed for the incidence of stomach cancer by gender, age, and time trend. Crude incidence, age-standardized incidence by Chinese standard population （ASR China） and by world standard population （ASR world） ,truncated rate （35-64 age years old）, cumulative rate （0-74 age years old）, cumulative risk, percentage change （PC） , annual percentage change （APC）,incidence by period and birth-cohort were calculated. [Results] The new stomach cancer cases were 15 401 （male 9804,female 5597） from 1972 to 2011 ,accounted for 16.60% of the total cancer incidence,ranked 2nd. The crude incidence,ASR China and ASR world were 34.26/105,16.25/105 and 25.59/105,respectively. Truncated rate （35-64 age years old） , cumulative rate （0-74 age years old） and cumulative risk were 40.03/105,3.15% and 3.10% ,respectively. During the forty years period,the PCs of crude incidence,ASR China and ASR world of stomach cancer were ＋21.90%,-55.32% and -51.20%,and the APCs,＋0.49%,-2.12% and -2.06%,respectively. Age-specific incidence rates by period de- creased with age in people among 25-74 years, and birth-cohort incidence showed down trends among 25-79 years. [Conclusionl The incidence of stomach cancer during 1972-2011 in Qidong maintained at a higher level, but the age-standardized rates were descending. The further tendency of falling in stomach cancer could be anticipated.