新型城镇化背景下地方政府债务风险动态管理研究——理论分析与模型构建

Dynamic Management of Debt Risk of Local Government under Background of the New Urbanization:Theoretical Analysis and Model Building

随着新型城镇化的发展,地方政府债务的多年累积引起社会的普遍关注。根据我国地方政府债务风险的表现形式、产生机理及传导机制,文章以违约债务为基点,构建基于熵模型的地方政府债务风险预警模型指标体系。在量化地方政府债务风险基础上,提出新型城镇化进程中防范地方政府债务风险的对策建议,比一般的线性预警方法更能有效而合理地反映债务风险规模,在理论上提供了一种新的债务风险控制思路。

With the development of the new urbanization, the accumulation of local government debt has caused widespread concern of society for these years. According to the form, generating mechanism and transmission mechanism of local govern- ment debt risk in China, such debt, virtually, is based on the default debt, the paper constructs an index system of risk pre- warning model of local government debt based on the entropy model. Based on quantification of local government debt risk, the paper puts forward some measures for preventing the risk of local government debt in the new urbanization process, and in this way the approach is better than general linear pre-warning method, further it can reflect the scale of debt risk effectively and reasonably and provide a new train of thought on debt risk control in theory.