伊拉克极端势力扩张对国际原油市场的影响

Global oil market jeopardized by Iraq's deterioration due to insurgency

近期ISIS(伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国)极端势力在伊拉克大肆扩张,对伊拉克国内原油生产和出口造成了不利影响,使伊国内石油利益博弈更为复杂。本轮伊拉克危局可能对国际原油市场产生重大影响,包括减少原油供给量、扰乱国际油价以及拖累全球经济复苏。目前,伊极端势力的扩张对我国石油公司在伊拉克的生产经营活动暂时影响不大,但长期看将对我国石油企业在伊拉克的投资经营带来极大的不确定性。建议在国家层面要继续推进能源进口多元化和油气战略储备计划;在企业层面要重视对海外投资环境的研究,建立相关预判预警及应急响应机制,并适时在危机中寻求新的投资机会。

With ISIS extremist forces expanding aggressively in Iraq,oil production and export have been badly impacted and Iraqi national interests in oil plays in the country have become more complex. The insurgency endangers the global oil market in three ways: reducing supply, disrupting price trends, and impairing global economic recovery. Currently the expansion of Iraqi extremists jurisdiction to production and business activities of oil companies in Iraq is having little effect for now. In the long run the insurgency will add a great deal of uncertainty to the investment and operation of oil companies in Iraq. Accordingly, energy import diversification and strategic reserve projects should continue at the national level. Individual Chinese oil companies should pay more attention to the risks in investment abroad, establish early-detection and early-warning emergency-response mechanisms, and seek timely new rational investment opportunities to hedge the Iraq insurgency.