我国通货膨胀与货币供应量、GDP的相关关系——基于1979-2012年数据的实证研究

China inflation and currency supply,GDP's relative relation demonstrative analysis based on 1977-2012 data

本文通过34年来CPI变化率同M0、M1、M2、GDP增长率之间的关联度进行实证分析,发现我国的货币供应量对于物价水平变动有显著影响;且上一年的GDP对CPI变化率有着明显的影响,这主要是由于我国采用各种调控手段保证经济的长期高速增长引起的;此外,从货币供应量的三个统计口径来看,M2对物价水平的影响程度优于M0和M1。

This article conducts empirical analysis of correlation degree between CPI change rate and the increase rate of M0,M1,M2.GDP over the past 34 years, finding our country＇s money supply has a obvious effect on the price -level changes; what＇s more, the GDP of previous year also influences the CPI change rate distinctly, this mainly due to various kinds of control measures which adopted by our government to guarantee the economy＇s long-term high growth. In addition ,in terms of three monetary statistics caliber, the impact degree of M2 is superior to that of MO and MI.