1961—2010年中国400mm和800mm等雨量线时空变化

Research on temporal and spatial change of 400 mm and 800 mm rainfall contours of China in 1961—2000

以中国1961—2010年逐日降水数据为基础,利用等值线加权平均位置的方式对400 mm和800 mm等雨量线的空间位置进行定量化处理。采用Kendall秩次相关检验法、Morlet小波分析法、滑动t-检验法和Yamamoto法时间序列分析方法,对全国50年来400 mm和800 mm等雨量线的空间位移特征进行了系统揭示:1961—2010年期间,400 mm和800 mm等雨量线加权平均位置坐标分别为(106°07'12″E,39°25'13″N)和(110°16'31″E,34°12'04″N)。趋势性结果表明,全国400 mm和800 mm等雨量线有向西和向南发生移动的趋势,其中400 mm等雨量线向西移动明显,800 mm等雨量线向南移动明显;周期性结果表明,全国400 mm等雨量线在经向和纬向上发生迁移的主周期分别为9年和12年,800mm等雨量线在经向和纬向变化均存在7年的主周期;突变性结果表明,400mm等雨量线空间位置的突变年为1995—1996年(纬度),800 mm等雨量线空间位置的突变年为1975年、2002年(经度)和1980年、1982年和1987年(纬度)。

Based on daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010, the spatial location of 400 mm and 800 mm rainfall contours were quantitatively analyzed via weighted contour line average location. Time series analysis methods such as Kendall, Morlet wavelet, moving t test and Yaraamoto method were utilized to systematically reveal the spatial shift feature of 400 mm and 800 mm rainfall contours of China in the recent 50 years： During 1961 to 2010, weighted 400 mm and 800 ram rainfall contours average location were 106°07′12″E, 39°25′13″N and 110°16′31″E, 34°12′04″N. The trendy results showed that 400 mm and 800 mm rainfall contours of China had a shifting trend toward west and south, of which 400 mm rainfall contour had a significant shifting trend toward west and 800 mm rainfall contour had a significant shifting trend toward south. Periodic results indicated that primary period of 400 mm rainfall contour＇s radical and zonal shift were 9 a and 12 a respectively in China, while that of 800 mm rainfall contour＇s radical and zonal shift were both 7 a. The breakpoint of 400 mm rainfall contour＇s spatial location were 1995 to 1996 （zonal） and that of 800 mm rainfall contour＇s spatial location were 1975 and 2002 （radical） and 1980, 1982, 1987（zonal）.