2011年9月18日豫西地质灾害气象成因及风险预警

The Meteorological Reason for Geological Disasters on September18,2011 in West Henan and Its Risk Warning

利用MICAPS常规气象观测资料、NCEP1°×1°6 h分析资料、自动雨量站资料等对2011年9月18日陇海铁路豫西三门峡市陕县观音堂段下行线路堑护坡发生的滑塌地质灾害气象成因进行分析,结果表明:此次坍塌事故发生地位于国土部门确定的地面塌陷、黄土崩塌等地质灾害高易发地区;2011年9月4—19日连阴雨的累积降水量和9月18日强降水过程的触发是此次地质灾害发生的主要诱因;200 h Pa副热带急流带的存在和稳定、乌拉尔山高压脊和副热带高压的长时间稳定维持和明显偏强、连续短波低值系统和冷空气的频繁活动是形成此次连阴雨天气的主要原因;自动土壤水分站土壤湿度的变化对地质灾害风险预警具有一定的参考价值.

Using conventional meteorological observation data （MICAPS）, NECP （1°×1°6 h） reanalysis data, automatic rain-gauge data and so on, this paper analyzes the meteorological reason for the slump of geological disasters of the cutting slope protection over the railway of Longhai-Guanyintang downlink on September 18,2011. The results showed that the collapse accident occurred in the high prone geological hazards areas determined by the ministry of land and resources, such as ground subsidence, collapse loess. The cumulative precipitation amount of the process of continuous rain on September 4--19 and strong precipitation process on September 18 are the principal cause of the geological hazards. Existence and stability of 200 hPa Subtropical jet, long time stably and obvious enhancement of ural mountain ridge and the subtropical high pressure, continuous short wave base system and the frequency activity of cold air mainly leaded to continuous rain on September 4--19. The variation of soil humidity of automatic station has a certain reference value for geological disaster risk warning.