三门峡市2008年1月10—22日低温阴雪天气过程分析

A Low Temperature and Snow Weather Process on January 10—22,2008 in Sanmenxia City

通过天气背景、卫星云图、数值预报产品及新一代多普勒雷达产品,对三门峡市2008年1月10—22日低温阴雪天气过程进行了分析检验,结果表明：不断南下的冷空气和源源不断的暖湿气流是产生这次低温阴雪天气的根本原因;云顶亮温在低于-50℃时降水强度是最大的,而高于-20℃时降水强度则很小;降雪时雷达回波强度比较小,回波强度主要维持在15∽20 dBz之间;欧洲144∽168 h的降温预报对三门峡本站具有很好的指导作用;相对湿度的预报和实况有很好的对应关系;提前4∽5 d的欧洲风场形势预报有很好的可信度;24 h晴雨预报TS值,日本明显高于德国和T213,其中T213漏报较多;3∽5 d降水预报TS值,T213优于德国和日本.在24 h分量级降水检验结果中,德国的TS评分高于日本和T213.

Based on the weather background, satellite images, numerical forecast products and the new generation of the Doppler radar products, the low temperature and snow weather process on January 10--22, 2008 in Sanmenxia City was analyzed and tested. The results showed that： the fundamental reasons for the low temperature snow weather were cold air of southward and warm wet air everfount; The cloud top temperature below -50℃ rainfall intensity was the largest, and higher than -20 ℃ precipitation intensity was very small： Snowfall radar echo intensity was relatively small that maintained at 15-20 dBz： The cooling forecast about 144 to 168 h of Europe numerical forecast has a very good role in guiding to Sanmenxia station： Europe numerical forecast of relative humidity has a good corresponding relationship to actual prediction： European wind field forecast ahead of 4-5 d has good credibility~ For 24 hours of weather forecasting value of TS, Japan was significantly higher than Germany and T213, and T213 missed more; For 3-5 d precipitation forecast values of TS, T213 was better than that of Germany and Japan. For 24 h component level precipitation test of TS, Germany was higher than that of Japan and T213.