中国外汇储备增长与流动性过剩关系的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on Relation between the Increase of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves and Excess Liquidity

随着中国经济的快速发展和对外开放程度的不断加深,中国外汇储备的规模呈现急剧攀升的态势,与此同时,中国的通胀也长期走高,稳定物价已经成为当务之急。那么两者究竟有无内在联系?本文利用主流的计量经济学研究方法对中国2004Q1-2011Q4间的外汇储备和货币供应量的时间序列数据进行了实证分析。结果显示,二者确实存在稳定的协整关系,而且由格兰杰因果关系检验可知,外汇储备规模的急剧扩大是造成中国目前流动性过剩的重要原因。因而,本文最后就如何化解当前流动性过剩的现状从外汇储备方面提出了简要的政策建议,即遏制外汇储备失控增长,提高外汇储备管理水平,优化外汇储备结构和币种。

With the rapid economical development, China is becoming more open, China＇ s foreign exchange reserves scale shows sharply increased trend. At the same time, China＇ s inflation has run high for a long time, so stabilize price becomes the primary task. Then, whether there is any internal relation between the two？ The text empirically analyzed the time series data of foreign exchange reserves and money apply from the first quarter of the year 2004 to the last quarter of the year 2011 with the mainstream econometric research methods. The result shows that co - inte- gration relationship do exist between the two, and from the Granger Causality Test, we can know that the important reason for China＇ s current excess liquidity is that the scale of foreign exchange reserves is increasing sharply. Therefore, in the end, the text focused on how to improve the present excess liquidity situation, giving brief political suggestions in respect of foreign exchange reserves, that is, to suppress the wild increase of the foreign exchange re- serves, to promote the management of the foreign exchange reserves, and to optimize the structure and kind of the foreign exchange reserves.