新疆莫索湾高温日数统计特征

Statistical Characteristics of High Temperature Days in Mosuowan of Xinjiang

根据新疆石河子垦区莫索湾气象站1961 ～2009 年高温资料,运用气候统计分析方法,对莫索湾的高温时间序列进行了分析,在此基础上通过计算高温异常指数,对其高温天气的危害性进行了评估排序与分级研究.结果表明,莫索湾高温日数整体上没有明显的变化趋势.20 世纪60 年代、70 年代末至90 年代中期2 个时段的高温日数呈下降趋势,而20 世纪90 年代中后期至2000 年期间呈上升趋势;高温日数的年代际变化为“单峰型”特征;6 ～8 月为高温的多发时段,其中7 月出现高温的天数最多;高温天气过程造成的灾害影响评价,应着重考虑高温日数、持续时间和强度3 个方面.根据月高温异常指数定义,通过排序分级,得出莫索湾高温评估情况为：排在第1 位的1974 年7 月高温天气过程为“50 a 一遇”,第10 位的1987 年8 月高温天气过程为“5 a 一遇”.运用排序分级进行的莫索湾高温灾害评估方法,能够客观反映其高温灾害天气的分布特征,且可操作性强,为今后高温灾害评估业务提供很好的参考.

Based on high temperature data at Mosuowan weather station of Shihezi agricultural areas in Xinjiang during 1961 - 2009,the days of high temperature was analyzed by using climatic statistic method. And on this basis,an impact evaluation of high temperature was studied by sorting and grading anomaly indexes of high temperature. The results show that high temperature days fluctuatedfrom 9 d to 57 d from 1961 to 2009 in Mosuowan,and the trend was not obvious in the whole. The days of high temperature decreasedin the 1960s and from the late 1970s to the middle 1990s,and increased from the late 1990s to 2000. The decadal variation of hightemperature presented single peak. The high temperature process occurred from June to August,and the days of high temperature wasmost in July. Furthermore,the days,duration and intensity of high temperature should be considered in the process of the disaster evaluation caused by high temperature weather. The evaluation of high temperature calculated by sorting and grading of the anomaly index displayed that the weather process of high temperature occurred in July 1974 was the first in the list,which defined as that only occurred once every 50 years in Mosuowan,and occurred in August 1987 was the tenth in the list,which defined as that only appearedonce every 5 years. The evaluation method of high temperature by sorting and grading of the anomaly index in Mosuowan,can objectively reflect the distribution characteristics of high temperature weather,and this method is high operability. It will provide referencebetter for business of the high temperature evaluation in future.