甘肃平凉市苹果花期冻害农业保险风险等级评估

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Insurance on Apple Freezing Injury at Blooming Stage in Pingliang of Gansu Province

为进一步做好农业气象灾害风险评估与政策性农业保险的结合工作,适应苹果政策性农业保险对气象服务的需求,统计了平凉7 县（区）气象资料、苹果物候观测资料,给出东、西部果区苹果花期冻害风险时段,结合近年来苹果花期冻害实地调查和历年因冻减产情况,确定苹果花期冻害农业保险的风险等级.在此基础上,分析全市1965 ～2011 年风险时段内不同风险等级冻害分布情况,最后确定参保指标.结果表明,平凉市苹果花期冻害风险时段中东部果区为4 月14 日至5 月5 日,西部果区为4 月20 日至5 月10 日;苹果花期冻害农业保险低风险、中风险和高风险3 个等级对应的最低气温分别为T≤ -3. 5 ℃、-3. 5 ℃ 〈 T≤ -1. 5 ℃、-1. 5 ℃ 〈 T≤0 ℃;总的来看,全市不同等级冻害发生频率的分布表现出西部大于东部,轻度〉中度〉重度的特点,其中华亭、静宁达到高风险等级,崆峒、灵台、庄浪、泾川为中风险等级,崇信是全市唯一的低风险等级的县;将花期冻害频率10% ～ 80%作为参保的上下限指标,同时应结合冻害等级和建立在历史资料上的保费区划进行灾损评估,科学合理地进行投保和理赔.

To make a better combination of the risk elevation on agro - meteorological disaster with policy agricultural insurance,andmeet the requirements of policy agricultural insurance for meteorological services,the risk periods of apple freezing injury at bloomingstage in eastern and western planting areas of Pingliang were provided by using statistics method based on meteorological data at 7 meteorological stations and phonological data at 6 counties in Pingliang of Gansu Province,firstly. Then,combined with field surveys of apple freezing injury at blooming stage and the related reductions of yield in recent years,the agricultural insurance risk grades on applefreezing injury were classified. On this basis,the spatial distribution of different risk grades freezing injury was analyzed during the apple blooming stage from 1965 to 2011,and the indexes of insurance were defined,finally. The results showed that the risk periods ofapple freezing injury at blooming stage were from April 14 to May 5 in the east and middle of Pingliang and from April 20 to May 10 inthe west. The low risk,medium risk and high risk of agriculture insurance on apple freezing injury in flowering stage were corresponding with T≤ -3. 5 ℃,-3. 5 ℃ 〈 T≤ -1. 5 ℃ and -1. 5 ℃ 〈 T≤0℃ （T is minimum temperature）,respectively. On the whole,the frequencies of three grades freezing injury in the west of Pingliang were larger than those in the east,and that of the low risk was thelargest,while the high risk was smallest. Among,the risk grade was high in Huating and Jingning,medium in Kongtong,Lingtai,Zhuanglang and Jingchuan,and low in Chongxin. In additional,the 10% and 80% of frequencies of apple freezing injury at bloomingstage were defined as the minimum and maximum permitted indicators for insurance. At the same time,the loss evaluation of applefreezing injury in the process of agricultural insurance should be considered to freezing injury grades and premiums division,which wasscientific and reasonable in buying insurance and making compensation.