基于Markov的福建省溪南半岛植被景观动态变化预测

Prediction of Vegetation Landscape Dynamic Changes in Xi'nan Peninsula in Fujian Based on Markov Process Model

在遥感和地理信息系统技术的支持下,利用1994和2008年两个时期的影像图作为信息源,获取福建省溪南半岛各景观要素类型的转化数据,确定相应的转移概率矩阵,并应用马尔科夫模型原理,运用MATLAB7.0软件定量预测出未来2022、2036、2050、2064年植被景观情况。结果表明,溪南半岛林地的恢复状况形势好转,生态条件将有所提高,溪南半岛的植被景观生态将向着和谐的方向发展,为"海西宁德工业区"的规划、管理及其资源使用与保护提供科学的指导。

Based on remote sensing and geographic information system, utilizing the remote sensing date in 1994 and 2008 as the information source, conversion data of landscape clement in Xi＇ nan Peninsula in Fujian Province was obtained, the transition probability matrices were de- termined. Based on the principle of Markov Model, the vegetation landscape in 2022, 2036, 2050 and 2064 was forecasted with MATLAB 7.0. The result shows that the recovering undergrowth vegetation of Xi＇ nan Peninsula is improving, ecological condition would be improved, the vegetation landscape in Xi＇ nan Peninsula will develop in the harmonious direction, providing scientific instruction for planning, manage- ment, resource use and protection of western strait Ningde zone.