开放与我国跨区域劳动力流动——一个新的理论解释

Openness and China's Interregional Labor Migration:A New Theoretical Explanation

本文试图通过研究中国东部地区产业集聚过程中经济开放对劳动力流动的作用机制,解释我国在全球化过程中的大规模劳动力跨区域流动现象。建立了一个综合性的一般均衡新经济地理学模型,通过加入一个非盈利的公共交通部门引入了劳动力流动的交通成本,并在模型机理分析的基础上对中国的情况进行数值模拟,得到如下结论:经济开放触发了我国产业向东部集聚和劳动力的跨区域流动,并且是保持产业和劳动力向东部集聚的必要条件;经济开放通过影响迁移成本、就业、实际工资等因素影响迁移决定;经济开放对我国产业集聚、劳动力跨区域的流动具有促进作用,且经济开放程度越大这种促进作用越明显。只要我国对外开放的基本国策不变,在离心力超越向心力之前,产业仍将向东部地区集聚,这种中西部地区向东部地区的劳动力流动还将持续。

This research tries to explain why large scale labors migrate from the interior to the coastduring China’s globalization process. We shed a light on the mechanism of economy openness effecton labor interregional migration when industries agglomerate to Chinese eastern area. We construct acomprehensive general equilibrium new economy geography model. We add a non-profit public transportation sector to reflect the migration fee. Then, we analyze model’s centripetal force andcentrifugal force, make numerical simulation of the model according to Chinese conditions. Theresults show： during Chinese globalization process, economy openness is the trigger and essentialcondition of industry agglomeration and labor migration; economy openness will effect short-termequilibrium, and effect many variables determining labor migration decision, including employment,real wage and price index; economy openness would affect migration through affecting migration costdirectly; economy openness would play role on the whole industry agglomeration process to effectlabor movement; economy openness promote both industry agglomeration and labor interregionalmigration, and the degree of openness is deeper the promotion effect is more obvious. As long asChina insists on basic policy of open economy, industry will still agglomerate in eastern area untilcentrifugal force beyond centripetal force, and