中国农户玉米播种面积决策的影响因素分析

Influence Factor Analysis on Chinese Farmers' Decision-making of Maize Planting Area

借鉴Nerlove模型,基于预期相对净收益的视角,建立一个省际的动态面板模型,探讨土地资源稀缺条件下中国农户玉米播种面积决策的影响因素。理论分析发现,在土地资源稀缺条件下,农户通常根据相对比值而非绝对值作出农作物播种面积决策。影响农户玉米播种面积决策的主要因素是农户对玉米未来相对净收益的预期,以及农户以往的播种决策,而预期相对利润由预期相对价格、预期相对单产和预期相对成本共同决定。实证检验部分地支持了理论分析结果,并且发现大豆与玉米的预期相对价格、预期相对单产和预期相对成本对玉米的预期相对播种面积均有不同程度的显著影响。最后指出,保证国家对农产品和农业生产资料价格的宏观调控等干预措施,以及科技投资政策和公共投资政策的长效性,是保障农户玉米播种面积不减少的两条重要途径。

Based on Nerlove model, expected relative net income and land resource endowment, this paper in-tends to establish a provincial dynamic panel model, in order to discuss the influence factors of Chinese farmers＇decision-making of maize planting area. Theoretical analysis shows that farmers generally make decision of maizeplanting according to rate instead of absolute value under the condition that land is scarce. The main factors in-fluencing farmers＇decision-making of maize planting area include expected relative net income and planting deci-sion-making in the past. And expected relative net income is dominated by expected relative prices, expectedrelative yield and expected relative cost. Part of the empirical testing is consistent with the theoretical analysis re-sults. Moreover, the result shows that expected relative planting area between soybean and maize is affected sig-nificantly by expected relative prices, expected relative yield and expected relative cost. Finally, in order to im-prove farmers忆enthusiasm for maize planting, we suggest two ways： to keep the long-term effect of science andtechnological policy and public investment policy, and to ensure the macro-control of the pricing of agriculturalproducts as well as agricultural means of production.