产业结构升级影响就业的门限效应——基于黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的实证分析

Threshold Effect of the Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Employment: Empirical Analysis of the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Economic Zone

为准确把握产业结构升级对就业的影响,及时调整就业政策,基于黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的滨州市和东营市1995—2012年有关数据,运用协整回归和门限回归方法对该区域进行实证分析表明,滨州市的产业结构转换系数与第三产业从业人员人数之间不仅存在长期均衡关系,而且存在门限效应,即滨州市的产业结构调整系数变动较小(门限值小于-0.81)时,产业结构升级对就业影响并不明显;当该系数变动较大(门限值大于-0.81)时,产业结构升级对就业具有显著影响。而东营市的第三产业产值比重与第三产业就业比重存在长期均衡关系,不存在门限效应。因此,就业政策应根据区域内不同地区产业结构升级所处的区间以及调整的幅度差异等分别进行相应调整。

To accurately master the impact of industrial structure upgrading on employment and adjust regional employment policy,based on time series data 1995 -2012 of Binzhou and Dongying, using linear cointegration and threshold cointegration regressionanalysis, this paper makes an empirical study of threshold effect of the impact of industrial structure upgrading on employment in theYellow River Delta High-efficiency Economic Zone. The empirical results show there is a stable equilibrium relation betweentransformational coefficient of industrial structure and the number of the workers in the tertiary industry in the long run in Binzhou, what＇s more, there is threshold effect. When transformational coefficient of industrial structure is -0. 81 lower than the threshold value, theimpact is not obvious while transformational coefficient of industrial structure is -0. 81 higher, the impact is obvious. While there is astable equilibrium relation between the tertiary industry proportion and the employment proportion of the tertiary industry in the long runin Dongying, and there is not threshold effect. Therefore, employment policy should be adjusted according to the stage of the regionalindustrial structure upgrading and the adjustment difference.