山西省县域粮食生产时空格局及影响因子分析

Study on space-time pattern and impact factors of grain production of Shanxi province at county level

利用空间自回归、ESDA-GWR空间计量方法对山西省县域粮食生产时空格局进行研究,结果发现:(1)山西省县域粮食生产同时存在空间自相关与空间非均衡性特征;(2)1990—2001年,粮食生产空间相关性变化大,粮食生产空间集聚较强,2002—2011年,粮食生产空间自相关系数下降且变化稳定,粮食生产空间集聚存在的同时伴有空间异质性;(3)县域粮食生产关联模式中以"HH"、"LL"两类模式为主,集中在晋西南与西北地区,且地域随时间变化较稳定,粮食生产空间溢出效应不明显。就粮食生产格局影响因子而言,粮食单产、农业劳动力投入及基期粮食生产是影响山西省县域粮食生产的最显著要素,机械化不显著,劳动力依赖显著。粮食单产、农业劳动力、基期粮食生产等要素作用于县域粮食生产异质性显著,除基期粮食生产要素外,其余大部分要素都表现为空间正负效应。山西省需要因地制宜规划粮食生产,增强各区域影响因子与粮食生产的匹配度。

By the methods of spatial constant coefficient Regression and ESDA-GWR, this paper in-depthly analyzed the patterns of grain production in Shanxi province at county level. The results showed that, grain production of Shanxi province at county level had the phenomenon of spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration. The extent of spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration of grain production changed heavily from 1990 to 2001. The spatial autocorrelation coefficient of grain production commenced to decline from 2002 to 2011, but it showed stably. The overall distribution pattern appeared to the features of agglomeration effect and spatial heterogeneity. Local spatial correlation patterns of grain production had two major types including ＂HH＂ and ＂LL＂, which mainly were located in the northwest and southwest of Shanxi province and remained relatively stably, the overflow effect of grain production was not obvious. Through analyzing the impact factors of grain production, on one hand, we found grain output, agricultural labor and previous grain production were the most significant factors to affect grain production, the agricultural mechanization was not significant and grain production relied on the factor of labor deeply. On the other hand, we found these factors including grain output, agricultural labors, previous grain production and per capita GDP had heterogeneous effect. Except the factor of previous grain production, other factors mostly had positive or negative effects on grain production in Shanxi province at county level. It needs to plan grain production at local conditions, and enhance the regional coordination between impact factors and grain production.