长三角地区金融发展与产业结构升级互动关系分析——基于Geweke因果分解检验

The Interactivity Analysis of Financial Development and Industrial Structure Upgrading in Yangtze River Delta——Based on Geweke Decomposition Test

基于Geweke因果分解检验和协整检验方法,以我国最具经济活力的长三角地区为研究对象,分析区域内金融发展与产业结构升级的互动关系。检验结果表明:上海、江苏和浙江产业结构升级与金融深化和金融发展效率均存在长期因果关系,而产业结构升级与金融结构不存在任何因果关系;从反馈份额看,主要表现为产业结构升级带动金融深化和金融发展效率的"需求尾随"效应。

Based on Geweke decomposition test and cointegration test, the article analyzes the interactivity of regional financial development and industrial structure upgrading in Yangtze River Delta. The test result suggests that there is long-term casual relationship between industrial structure upgrading and financial deepening, financial development efficiency in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. But industrial structure upgrading and financial structure have no causal relationship in this area. From the aspect of feedback share, they mainly manifest in demand following effect which industry structure upgrading drives financial deepening and financial development efficiency.