气候变化对农业生产与粮食安全影响的新认知

Updated Understanding on the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production and Food Security

IPCC第二工作组在第五次评估报告中客观而审慎地评估了气候变化已经发生和潜在的影响、各个领域与区域的敏感性和脆弱性。针对农业生产与粮食安全,报告表明,气候变化对全球大部分地区作物、畜牧、渔业产生了影响,且负面影响更普遍;不仅影响到生产过程,也影响到非生产系统因素,但这些影响存在区域差异。极端事件(如极端高温)对作物产量、品质及市场价格的负面影响明显。大气中CO_2浓度增高有利于作物产量提高,但是与温度、臭氧以及水分利用、病虫草害等协同效应仍然不明确。增强适应可以克服增温对农业的负面影响,并减少粮食损失。关于气候变化对粮食安全非生产系统因素的影响及如何开展适应,还需要搜集更多的证据。

Climate Change 2014： Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report （AR5） was launched in March 2014. This report summarizes the newest peer-reviewed and comprehensive findings from international scientific communities on impacts, sensitivity and vulnerability. The report shows, focusing to food production and food security, the effects of climate change on crop, animals and fishery are evident in most regions of the world. Negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones. The effects act on not only production process, but also non-production elements, such as food access, utilization, and price stability, which varies among different regions. Studies have documented a large negative sensitivity of crop yields to extreme daytime temperatures. Evidence since AR4 confirms the stimulatory effects of CO2 in most cases and the damaging effects of elevated tropospheric ozone on crop yields. More adaptation is helpful to overcome the negative effect of temperature increasing, and reduce food losses. More observational evidence is needed on the effectiveness of adaptation at all levels of the food system.