IPCC第五次评估报告对气候变化风险及风险管理的新认知

Understanding of Disaster Risk and the Management Associated with Climate Change in IPCC AR5

IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告在气候变化风险及风险管理方面聚焦于气候变化对领域和区域的不利影响。在综合分析与气候变化相关危害、暴露度和脆弱性的基础上,提出了气候变化风险的评估框架。风险不仅来自气候变化本身,同时也来自人类社会发展和治理过程。报告首次提出了新生风险,归纳总结了气候变化带来的关键风险,评估了不同温升下气候变化5个"关注理由"的风险水平。在风险管理过程中,由于适应和减缓的局限性,剩余风险是不可避免的。未来,若全球平均温度升高4℃(较工业革命以前)将加剧人类和社会生态系统广泛的、严重的和不可逆影响的风险。

IPCC WGIIAR5 focused on the climate change related impacts of various sectors and regions in the risk and its management.Based on comprehensive analysis and consideration of risk of climate change-related hazards,exposure and vulnerability,it proposed the framework for assessing risk associated with climate change.Risk may not only come from climate change itself,but also from development and the governance process of the human society.The report identified of a variety of emergent risks that were not previously assessed or recognized,summarized eight kinds of key risks,and evaluated climate change related risk levels of five reasons for concern on the different levels of tempreture rise.Due to limitations of adaptation and mitigation,the residual risk is unavoidable in risk management process.The risk of severe,extensive and irreversible impacts of the human and socio-ecological systems will exacerbate when future global temperature rise in excess of 4 ℃ relative to preindustrial levels.