风云突变

Sea Change

随着美国西海岸停工威胁愈演愈烈，东海岸的进口优势逐渐凸显，今年的航运旺季也可能提早到来。

Shippers' fears of West Coast labor disruption tilt the import advantage to the East and may create an earlier-than-usual peak season. The possibility of labor disruptions on the West Coast has scared U.S. importers into turning their container shipments on their heads this year, both geographically and chronologically. Imports through the East Coast are growing faster than those out West and peak-season shipments are moving earlier. Retail shippers are funneling more Asian imports through East Coast ports and moving shipments up into the prepeak months to build inventories in the event of any work slowdowns or stoppages at West Coast ports this summer during contract negotiations between employers and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union. Containerized imports at U.S. East Coast ports grew 6.4 percent year-over-year in the first five months of 2014, almost twice as fast as the comparable 3.5 percent increase on the West Coast, according to PIERS, the data division of JOC Group. As a result, total U.S. import volumes reached 4.8 million TEUs in the second quarter, compared with Moreno's previous forecast of 4.75 million.The inventory-to-sales ratio climbed during the fall of 2013 and peaked at 1.45 in the stormy winter months, at almost the same level as that in late 2008 before the 2009 recession, when imports collapsed. The ratio has since declined to 1.42 in April, the last month for which data is available.Hackett Associates is forecasting a 5 percent increase in total North American import volumesthis year, with West Coast volumes growing by 4 percent and East Coast by 6 percent.