完善GLOBIO3生物多样性预测模型——问题、建议与展望

GLOBIO3 perfect predictive model of biodiversity-questions,suggestions and Prospects

GLOBIO3模型是全球生物多样性评价领域的前沿成果。该模型以剂量-反应关系为基础,借助比较容易监测的驱动因子预测难以监测的生物多样性。这一模型具有明显的创新性,但也有不足之处。该文在介绍GLOBIO3模型主体框架和基本方法的基础上,分析其中存在的不足并提出具有针对性的建议,以期完善GLOBIO3模型并促进相关领域的持续深入研究。

GLOBIO3 model is one of the frontier achievements in global biodiversity assessment and forecast.Based on the dose-- effct relationship,the model predicts the hardly available biodiversity data using the relatively attainable monitoring results of the environmental and social drivers.Though innovative,the model shows clear shortcomings.This paper will firstly introduce the core framework and fundamental methods of GLOBIO3 as a preparation, then focus on the analysis and resolution of the targeted disadvantages of the model.Following this logic,this paper tries to make meaningful improvements to the model and encourage more studies in related fields.