生猪价格波动原因探析

Causes Analysis on Fluctuations of Hog Prices

长期趋势、季节性、周期性和不确定因素是影响中国生猪价格波动的主要原因。研究表明,成本上升和需求刚性增长使生猪价格呈现长期上涨的趋势;生产的阶段性使生猪价格呈现一年以上的从低到高、再从高到低周而复始的周期性波动;生产与消费的季节性使生猪价格在一年中拥有规律的季节性特征;自然灾害、疫病等不确定因素使生猪价格在波动幅度和持续时间上出现非常规性波动。由于中长期生产成本持续上涨,近期内养殖周期和季节性不可改变,对于养殖主体来说,控制生产成本、提高养殖技术、加强疫病防范管理水平比预测价格以调整产量更为重要。

Long-term trend, seasonality, cyclicity and uncertain factors are main reasons for hog price fluctuations in China. This study showed that： hog price had a long-term upward trend for rising costs and rigid demand growth; hog price exhibited cyclical fluctuations for production stage, which was from low to high and then low again and again for more than a year; hog price had regular seasonal characteristics with seasonal production and consumption; natural disasters, epidemics and other uncertain factors made hog price have unconventional fluctuations in volatility and duration. Because long-term production costs continued rising, breeding cycle and seasonal characters could not change in the near future, controlling production costs, improving farming techniques and enhancing the level of disease prevention were more important than predicting price to adjust production for farmers.