2014年上半年小麦市场分析及未来展望

China's Wheat Market in the First Half of 2014 and Its Future Prospect

2014年春节后由于市场粮源较为充裕,小麦需求受制粉企业开工率下降影响较为低迷,国内普通小麦价格呈现稳中偏弱格局,而优质小麦受供应偏紧影响价格持续上涨;由于美国小麦主产区遭遇不利天气,国际小麦价格自低位回升。目前,托市收购提前启动使得国内新麦价格呈现高开格局,但是由于新季小麦丰收在望,且受需求短期内难以改变的影响,新麦价格或将呈现高开稳走的态势;美国天气状况改善,2014/15年度全球小麦供需宽松,国际小麦价格或将震荡下调。

Demand for wheat is shrinking after the Spring Festival 2014 due to sufficient supply and low operation rate of flour enterprises, which results the weak and stable price of common wheat. But the price of high quality wheat is still increasing because of tight supply. Intemational wheat price has increased from low point due to the adverse weather in main producing areas of wheat in the United States. The price of new wheat will rise to a high point at the beginning for the early start of prop acquisition. But the price will turn to be stable later because a bumper harvest of wheat is expected in the coming harvest season and the demand is difficult to improve in a short term. With better weather condition in the United States, the supply and demand of global wheat is going to be loose in 2014/15 and international wheat price is expected to fall.