基于三角模糊数的仿真模型验证方法

Validation method of simulation model based on triangular fuzzy number

为了保证仿真模型可信度量化结果的准确性,同时便于验证方法的实际应用,既需要充分考虑各种专家意见带来的不确定性,且需要采用统一的形式对专家意见进行刻画。由此提出基于三角模糊数的验证方法。首先分析专家意见的特点,并采用三角模糊数进行描述;然后将仿真输出分为静态、缓变和速变三类数据,并分别采用相应的图形将各自特征直观地呈现给专家,进而评定得到每个仿真输出分量的符合度;再者基于三角模糊数层次分析法得到各仿真输出变量的权重;最后基于模糊综合评判法综合各仿真输出分量的符合度,得到仿真模型的可信度。在实例应用中,该方法有效地对某导弹导引系统仿真模型进行验证。

To ensure the accuracy of the credibility of simulation model and make the validation method convenient for application, the uncertainty of expert opinions needs to be adequately concerned and the expert opinions need to be depicted by the unified form. The validation method of simulation model based on triangular fuzzy number was proposed. Firstly, the feature of expert opinion was analyzed and the expert opinion was depicted by the triangular fuzzy number. Then the simulation output was divided into three kinds： static data, gradual data and fast data. Their features are shown in the corresponding graph. The consistency degree of each kind of data was given by experts via observing data features in the graph, and the weight of each simulation output was obtained based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Lastly, the credibility of simulation model was obtained via integrating the consistency of simulation outputs based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. In the application, the simulation model of the guidance system of a missile was validated effectively by the method.