云南烤烟低温冷害风险区划

Risk zonation on cold damage of tobacco in Yunnan Province

用云南93个烤烟种植县气象站1961—2010年4—9月逐日平均气温、逐日最低气温,逐月平均气温,平均最低气温资料结合各类型烤烟低温冷害指标,基于概率和强度结合权重指数,计算了各烤烟种植县的春季、夏季、秋初和全生育期综合低温冷害风险指数。使用低温冷害风险指数与海拔、纬度因子建立的空间推算回归模型,在ArcGIS 9.3平台下实现了低温冷害风险指数的空间精细化推算、订正及区划,进一步将其分类为5个风险等级,且对区划结果进行了分析。区划结果可为烤烟生产相关单位提供低温冷害防御的决策依据。

By using daily and monthly mean and minimum temperature data from April to September during 1961-2010 from 93 meteorological stations combined with different kinds of cold damage indices in the flue-cured tobacco planting areas of Yunnan province, based on its probability and strength related with weighting exponent, the integrated risk index in spring, summer, early autumn and the whole growth period, was calculated, to in order to analyze the distribution characteristics of low temperature risk in- dex. A regression model related to elevation, latitude and cold damage index was constructed, which can be used for the small grid reckon, revision and division of cold damage index under ArcGIS 9.3. The whole area was divided into five risk levels, this kind of zonation can provide scientific basis for tobacco production to prevent low temperature injury.