中国货币流通速度影响因素的经验分析

An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Velocity in China

近几年来 ,货币供应量的超国民经济需求增长和货币流通速度下降影响了中国货币政策的有效性。通过统计分析 ,本文得出影响中国货币流通速度的因素主要有 :经济货币化程度、金融发达程度、利率和储蓄率。这四个因素对中国货币流通速度的影响是不同的。因此 ,在讨论中国货币政策问题时 ,不能只关注货币供应量对货币流通速度的影响。当前的货币政策重点应该是在保持货币供应量稳定增长的情况下 ,通过外生变量来调整货币流通速度 。

In recent years, with the growth of extra-economy demand for the money supply and the slowing down of monetary velocity, the theory of monetary policy in China is facing great challenges. On the basis of statistical analysis, this article defines the factors which affect monetary velocity. Degree of financial modernization,interest rate and saving rate are the most significant factors. Therefore, We think that China's monetary authority should not only focus on monetary velocity while neglect other aspects. We also reject the opinion that central bank should increase money supply because of the declining monetary velocity.