人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易收支的影响

Effect of RMB exchange rate changes on China's trade balance

首先回顾了学术界关于汇率变动对贸易收支影响的研究成果。在此基础上,分析了汇率变动对进出口贸易收支影响的机制。根据不完全替代理论推导出人民币汇率变动影响我国贸易收支的实证模型,并选取1994—2010年度数据,采用ADF检验、Johansen协整检验和Granger因果检验方法对人民币汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响作了实证分析。实证结果表明,人民币汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响不显著。文章的最后,提出了相应的对策建议:我国应进一步扩大内需,缓解贸易顺差;控制贸易收支增长的速度以减轻人民币升值压力;中国人民银行应保持人民币汇率水平的相对稳定。

Firstly, this paper reviews the research results about the effect of exchange rate changes on trade balance in the academic circles. On this basis, and analyses the mechanism of the effect of exchange rate changes on import and export trade balance. According to the imperfect substitutes theory, deducing empirical model of RMB exchange rate changes affect China＇ s trade balance. Then,the author select the annual data from 1994 to 2010,using ADF test, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test to make a empirical analysis of the effect of RMB exchange rate changes on China＇ s trade balance. The empirical results show that the effect of RMB exchange rate changes on China＇ s trade balance is not significant. Finally, the paper puts forward relative countermeasures and suggestions, that is, China should further expand domestic demand to ease trade surplus, control the growth rate of the trade balance to relieve the pressure of RMB appreciation;People＇ s Bank of China should remain the level of RMB exchange rate relatively stable.