洪水灾害危险性评估的云物元耦合模型

The Assessment Method of Flood Hazard Based on Cloud Matter Element Coupled Model

针对洪水灾害风险评估中的随机性、模糊性和不完备性等不确定性,结合云模型的不确定性推理特点和物元理论的定性、定量分析优势,提出了基于云物元耦合模型的洪水灾害危险等级评估方法。引入正态云模型表达物元的事物特征,建立洪水灾害危险性评估标准云物元,计算待评价单元云物元与标准云物元之间的云关联度,由模糊等级特征公式和置信度准则对各评价单元进行危险性等级的评判和排序,实现洪水灾害危险性综合评价和区划。以荆江分洪区为例进行分析,研究结果可为区域洪水灾害防治规划、防灾减灾部署等提供依据。

According to many uncertain characteristics of influencing factors, a new method for flood disaster hazard assessment is presented. The method has two advantages of considering two uncertain characteristics and realizing flood hazard assessment qualita- tively and quantitatively based on the cloud model and matter element theory. The method uses cloud model to express the things ei- genvalue of matter elements, calculates the correlation function of feature matter element models and standard ones, and the flood hazard grades can be obtained by using the assurance criterion and fuzzy feature value equation. Taking the case study in Jingjiang Flood Diversion District for Example, the results can provide a scientific basis for flood risk management, flood control and disaster mitigation planning.