湖北电网雷电流幅值概率分布特性分析

Analysis of Distribution Characteristics of Lightning Current Magnitude in Hubei Power Network

利用2005—2012年湖北电网雷电定位系统监测的雷电流幅值数据,基于Matlab中最小二乘法原理,对IEEE推荐的雷电流幅值累积概率公式和国内规程推荐的相关公式进行拟合分析,结果表明前者拟合曲线更接近实际曲线。通过分析IEEE推荐的概率曲线与实际概率曲线之间的相对误差绝对值可知,负闪雷电流幅值小于79 kA或正闪雷电流幅值小于148 kA时,相对误差绝对值不超过10%,随着雷电流的增大,相对误差也越来越大。最后给出了雷电流幅值概率修正公式。

Based on the principle of least square method in MATLAB,the lightning current amplitude accumulative probability formula recommended by the IEEE standard and domestic standard are analyzed by using the monitoring data of lightning location system from 2005 to 2012.The results show that the former is closer to the actual curve.By analyzing the absolute relative error between the curve recommended by the IEEE standard and actual probability curve,absolute relative errors are less than 10%when negative lightning current amplitude is less than 79 kA or positive lightning current amplitude is less than 148 kA.With the increase of lightning current,the relative error is also growing.The lightning current amplitude accumulative probability modified formula is proposed.