流动人口离城意愿实证研究——基于北京、上海、广州三市调查的初步分析

An Empirical Research of Migrants' Wish of Leaving the City:The Preliminary Analysis Based on a Survey Conducted in Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou

通过对北京、上海、广州三个城市流动人口数据进行分析,运用多水平模型,在城市、区县、个体三个层级对离城意愿进行研究。结果表明:城市间的差异并不明显,发挥影响的主要在县(市、区)级,主体功能区对流动人口的离城意愿没有明显的作用,对居住环境或条件的不满不会导致流动人口离开所在的城市,与老家相比"当前是否更具有幸福感"对流动人口未来是否留在本地发挥着重要作用,最近两年来本市的流动人口对未来离城的看法并不稳定。

Based on the migrants＇ survey conducted in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the paper takes an empirical research of migrants＇ wishes of leaving city in urban level, county level and individual level through multi-level model analysis. There are several findings as below; the gap of migrants＇ wishes of leaving city is not significant among the urban level, yet the main effect coming from the county level. The main functional region ruled by government has no siginificant impact on migrants＇ wish of leaving city. Bad or terrible living condition does not induce the migrants＇ wish of leaving city. The happiness of migrants comparing with that in hometown keeps a key role in the wish of leaving or staying the city. The wishes of new-coming migrants are fluctuated.