试析乌克兰危机的战略影响

An Analysis of Strategic Implications of the Ukraine Crisis

乌克兰危机是乌国内政治斗争及西方与俄罗斯地缘政治竞争相互作用的结果。危机引发一系列连锁反应,包括导致乌克兰战略上倒向西方、美俄成为战略敌手、欧俄地缘政治竞争加剧及中俄加强战略合作等。同时,由于受到全球化和西方仍占据全球战略优势等因素制约,危机并未导致美俄新冷战和中俄结盟,也没有改变美国的亚太"再平衡"战略。

The Ukraine crisis is caused by interactions of the country's domestic political struggle and the geopolitical competition between the West and Russia. The crisis triggered a series of chain reactions. At the present stage,as Ukraine strategically leans towards the West,U. S. and Russia drift into strategic adversaries and the EU-Russia geopolitical competition intensifies,while China and Russia are on the way to 'quasi-allies'. In the meantime,owing to economic globalization and the comparative strategic edge of the West over Russia,the crisis does not lead to a new cold war between U. S. and Russia and a revival of China-Russia Alliance. Neither does it dramatically change U. S. rebalancing strategy to Asia-Pacific. The crisis is likely to cool off in the near future,but if it could not be resolved in the long run,U. S. may adjust its military strategy in response to its domestic pressure( to stand firm to Russia),which may have consequential effects on international politics.