基于CGE模型的煤电能源输送结构调整的补贴方案设计——以山西省为例

Design of Subsidy Mechanism on Structure Adjustment of Coal Electric Energy Transport Based on CGE Model——Taking Shanxi Province as an Example

本文利用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,发现对于山西而言,输煤远优于输电。若落实变"晋煤外送"为"晋电外送"能源战略,必须对山西所受损失进行补贴。本文在山西"扩送电"情况下,分别以"稳增长"和"调结构"为补贴目标,设计了一系列针对山西主要经济部门的年度补贴方案,并比较分析了不同补贴方案对山西的经济和社会影响。最后,以实现山西长远发展为要求,确定了最优补贴方案。发现山西在以增加"扩送电"投资30%的前提下,若想同时兼顾"稳增长"和"调结构"目标,最优补贴方案应该对原煤部门征收30亿元"调结构"资金,对农业部门补贴35亿元,对制造业部门补贴94亿元,对其他服务业部门补贴6亿元。并据此提出中央统筹补贴资金分摊和筹集、适当上调山西外送电力上网价格、保证及时和足额支付补贴资金以及加快区域产业结构调整步伐等政策建议。

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model; found that for Shanxi province, coal transportation is far better than electric power transmission. If switching from coal transportation to electric power transmission, must be subsidies to loss on the Shanxi. In case of Shanxi ＂expanding electricity transmission＂, took ＂steady growth＂ and ＂adjusting structure＂ as subsidies goal, this paper designed a series of targeted subsidies to Shanxi＇s main sectors of the economy, and a comparative analysis of the different subsidy scheme for Shanxi＇s economic and social impact was down. Found in Shanxi in order to increase the premise of ＂expanding electricity transmission＂ under the investment 30%, the optimal subsidy scheme is that collect 3 billion yuan of adjusting structure funds from the coal sector, give the agriculture sector 3.5 billion yuan, give the manufacturing sector 9.4 billion yuan and give the other service sector 0.6 billion yuan. Then put forward the corresponding policy recommendations accordingly： make a comprehensive plan of spreading and raising the subsidy funds by the central government, rise the pool purchase price of electric power transmission, ensure paying the subsidy funds seasonable and sufficiently and speed up the regional industrial reconstructuring.