环境规制的产业结构调整效应研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验

Research on the Effect of Environmental Regulation to Industrial Restructuring——Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Data of China

当经济可持续发展面临趋紧的环境约束和转型压力,产业结构调整成为解决保增长、促减排这一"两难"格局的关键路径。本文选取1999-2011年中国30个省份的相关面板数据,在区分正式环境规制和非正式规制的基础上,就环境规制能否成为一个有效的倒逼机制驱动产业结构的调整进行了检验,并运用门槛回归模型检验了环境规制驱动产业结构调整的门槛特征及空间异质性。面板回归和门槛检验的结果表明:正式环境规制能有效驱动产业结构调整,因此可将环境规制作为产业结构调整的新动力;当以工业污染排放强度作为门槛变量时,随着正式环境规制强度的由弱变强,它会对产业结构调整产生先抑制、后促进、再抑制的影响,从而验证了两者关系中显著的门槛特征和空间异质性。非正式规制强度指标总体上与产业结构调整正相关,表明非正式规制的经济效应在中国已初步显现;而外商直接投资和产业规模均不利于产业结构调整。

When the economic growth faces tightening environmental constrains and pressures of economic transformation, clean adjustment of industrial structure could be the critical path to resolve the ＂dilemma＂ which refers to maintaining economic growth as well as promoting emission reduction. By using the panel-data of China＇s 30 provinces from 1999 to 2011 and distinguishing the concept of formal regulation and informal regulation, the paper tests that if the environmental regulation could play a role of reversed force mechanism in promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Then establish a threshold regression model to examine the spatial heterogeneity in the reversed force effect of environmental regulation. The result shows that the formal regulation can significantly stimulate the industries to be restructured, but with significant threshold characteristics and spatial heterogeneity. When use the intensity of industrial pollution as the threshold parameter, with formal regulation strength increasing, its effect on industrial restructuring will turn to be inhibiting first, then promoting and to be inhibiting again. The intensity of informal regulation is positively correlated with the industrial restructuring, which indicates that the economic effect of informal regulation has initially appeared in China. But FDI and industrial scale have a negative impact on industrial restructuring.