煤炭价格下降对我国宏观经济的影响

Research on the Effect of Coal Price Decline on China's Economy:Based on CGE Model

煤炭在我国能源结构中居于主体地位,由于产能过剩和进口煤大量冲击,煤炭价格下降幅度较大。而煤炭价格已经接近完全市场化,电力价格仍然受政府管制,中央财经领导小组已经定调推动能源体制革命,电价市场化将是我国全面深化改革的重要内容,因此研究电价市场化和受政府管控下煤炭价格下降对宏观经济的影响具有重要的意义。论文利用CGE模型研究了两种情境下我国煤炭价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响,对不同的煤炭价格冲击进行情景模拟并进行了分析,结论表明两种情境下煤炭价格波动对宏观经济变量和21个产业影响是不同的,并据此提供一些政策建议。

Coal is in the dominant position in China＇s energy structure, due to overcapacity and a lot of the impact of imported coal, coal prices fell by a big margin. While coal prices have nearly complete market, electricity prices are still under government control, the Central Financial Work Leading Group has set the tone for the revolution to promote energy system, electricity market will be an important part of our comprehensive deepening reform, so research the market and price control by the government under the macroeconomic impact of the decline in coal prices has im- portant significance. Paper uses CGE model to study the two kinds of situations of our country＇s coal price fluctuation on China＇s macroeconomic impact, the impact of different coal price scenario simulation and analysis, the conclusion shows that two kinds of situations of coal price fluctuations in macroeconomic variables and 21 industry influence is different, and provides some policy Suggestions accordingly.