城市化滞后之谜:基于国际贸易的解释

The Enigma of Under-Urbanization:An Explanation Based on International Trade

在工业化进程中,如何认识和消解城市化滞后是中国全面深化改革的关键问题。构建开放经济下农村剩余劳动力转移模型,运用1995—2010年40个未完成工业化国家的数据,研究城市化滞后与国际贸易的关系发现:在开放经济体系下,若国内存在大量剩余劳动力,且本国产品及服务可向国外市场出售,则该国城市化率滞后于工业化率的程度与净出口比例显著正相关;市场化水平越高、城市失业率越低、卫生设施改善越少的国家或地区,出现滞后城市化的可能性也越高;滞后城市化与人均GDP存在倒"U"型关系。

In the course of industrialization,the question of how to understand and counteract China's lagging urbanization is crucial to the deepening of all-round reform.This essay constructs a model for the shift of the surplus rural labor force under open economy conditions and researches the relations between under-urbanization and international trade using 1995-2010 data from 40 countries that have not completed their industrialization.It finds that within an open economy system,the extent to which a country's urbanization rate lags behind its rate of industrialization is significantly and positively correlated with its net export rate,provided the country concerned has a substantial surplus labor force and its goods and services can be sold to foreign markets;the higher the level of marketization,the lower the urban unemployment rate,and the poorer sanitation facilities are in a country or region,the greater the likelihood of under-urbanization;and there is an 'inverse U-shaped'relationship between under-urbanization and per capita GDP.