Consumption-based Carbon Emissions and International Carbon Leakage: An Analysis Based on the WIOD Database

消费碳排放与国际碳溢出：基于WIOD数据库的计算(英文)

The worldwide increase in consumption levels is a major cause of the dramatic rise in greenhouse gas （GHG） emissions. A thorough understanding of the dynamics of consumption-based carbon emissions and the factors influencing it would facilitate the design of climate policies. This article employs data in the multi-regional input-output tables and on sectoral carbon emissions from the World Input-Output Database （WIOD） to develop a multi-regional input-out （MR/O） model, setting up a consumption-based carbon emission accounting inventory and analyzing global consumption-based carbon emissions and the spillover effects of international carbon emissions. The results show that global consumption- based carbon emissions in 2009 were 28850 Mt, of which about 20 percent were embodied in international trade. A large part of these emissions derived from production in and exportsfrom China and the region comprising Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, Australia and Turkey （BRIIAT）, production and exports which were consumed in NAFTA and the Eurozone. If the factor of intemational trade is taken into consideration, the inter-regional gap in carbon emission intensity narrows, ranging from 2.4 t （BRIIAT） to 14.7 t （NAFTA） consumption-based emissions per capita. Whereas embodied imported carbon accounted for 33 percent and 17 percent in NAFTA and the Eurozone respectively, 29 percent of China＇s carbon emissions were caused by the consumption of other countries. Therefore, setting up a consumption-based carbon emission accounting inventory has become increasingly important for international climate negotiations. Moreover, allocating responsibility for carbon emissions between the producer and the consumer will help change the existing mode of consumption and promote emission reduction.

全球消费水平的提高是引起温室气体排放增加的主要原因之一,全面了解消费碳排放的增长趋势及其影响因素有利于气候政策的设计。本文采用WIOD数据库的区域间投入产出表及部门碳排放数据,建立多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,构建消费碳排放核算目录,分析全球消费碳排放及国际碳排放的溢出效应。研究结果表明:2009年全球消费碳排放为28850百万吨(Mt),其中国际贸易所隐含碳排放占到全球的20%,而这些贸易隐含碳主要是从中国和BRIIAT生产和出口,由北美和欧元区消费引起的。如果考虑国际贸易的影响,国际地区间碳强度的差距将缩小,人均消费碳排放从2.4 t(BRIIAT)到14.7 t(北美)不等。进口隐含碳分别占到北美和欧元区的33%和17%,而中国碳排放的29%是由其他国家消费引起的。因此,消费碳排放核算体系的建立对于国际气候谈判日益重要,在生产者和消费者之间分配碳排放责任,从而改变全球消费模式将有助于减排。