IPCC如何影响国际气候谈判——一种基于认知共同体理论的分析

How IPCC Influences the International Climate Negotiation:An Analysis Based on the Theory of Epistemic Communities

气候变化问题的全球性和不确定性使国际气候政策的协调变得十分必要。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)在国际气候谈判中的作用受到国际社会的普遍重视,但中国学术界对其作用机制的认识仍然有限。作者借鉴认知共同体理论,分析了IPCC影响国际气候谈判的四个主要路径,即政策创新、政策扩散、政策选择和政策坚持。首先,在政策创新层面,IPCC是国际气候谈判中的政策合法性来源。IPCC的科学性赋予了评估报告的合法性,成为国际气候谈判规范与原则的最高来源,直接支撑气候谈判。其次,在政策扩散层面,IPCC定期发布报告的模式具有累积效应,这种气候变化知识的传播能力极强,因此保持了气候变化在国际政治议程设置上的较高排序。再次,在政策选择层面,特别是IPCC与政治权力的关系上,IPCC的评估报告包括科学评估与政府评估的双重程序,在牺牲了部分科学合法性的同时,IPCC也维持了自身的政治影响力。最后,在政策坚持层面,IPCC与国际环境非政府组织的联合与互动形成了间接影响国际气候谈判的渠道。这一渠道强化了国际环境非政府组织与小岛屿国家等行为体向传统的国际气候谈判格局施压的作用。当然,IPCC作为气候变化的认知共同体,也存在着一些如科学专业精神不足、组织机构运行效率不高等影响其发挥作用的限制性因素。因此,IPCC的作用也是有边界的。

The uncertainty of climate change with being global in nature has made the coordination of international climate policy necessary.IPCC's role in international climate negotiations has received wide attention from the international community,but the Chinese academia is not fully aware of its role and mechanisms.Drawing from the theory of Epistemic Communities,we argue that IPCC influences international climate negotiations by four major mechanisms,namely policy innovation,policy diffusion,policy selection and policy persistence.Firstly,at the level of policy innovation,IPCC is the source of legitimacy of international climate policy negotiations.IPCC's scientific assessment report bestows legitimacy to climate change policy,which also directly supports the climate negotiations.Secondly,at the level of policy diffusion,IPCC regularly publish reports.This publication pattern has a cumulative effect,and it has strong ability to spread knowledge of climate change,thus keeping climate change issue high on the international political agenda setting.The third mechanism is at the level of policy selection,particularly in the relations between IPCC and political powers.IPCC assessment reports include dual reviews with the government's assessment and it is at the expense of some scientific legitimacy.Meanwhile,IPCC also maintains its own political influence.The last mechanism indicates the persistence at the policy level by way of the interaction between IPCC and international environmental NGOs.They form an indirect channel to affect international climate negotiations.This channel reinforces the international environmental NGOs and the Small Island states and other actors to pressure on the traditional pattern of international climate negotiations.However,IPCC as an epistemic community of climate change,still has some deficiencies,such as lack of scientific professionalism,inadequate organizational structure,etc.Therefore,IPCC's influence on international climate negotiations is not unlimited.