物流成本对产出和价格水平的影响——基于FAVAR模型

Impact of logistics cost on output and price levels:A factor-augmented vector autoregressive(FAVAR) approach

我国物流成本较发达国家一直偏高,2010年以来油价高企推动物流成本上升,物流成本对价格水平的影响受到广泛关注,但鲜有关于物流成本对价格水平的定量研究.本文通过构建因子增广向量自回归(FAVAR)模型深入研究了我国物流成本对工业产品产量和价格水平的影响与传导机制,结果表明:1)物流成本对主要工业产品产量和社会物流总额存在长期负向影响.2)物流成本对价格水平存在正向影响,并且CPI对物流成本冲击的反应比PPI更加灵敏,反应幅度也更大.3)物流成本对CPI和PPI的冲击主要通过食品价格传导.总之,物流成本是通货膨胀的重要"推动力"之一,降低物流成本对于扩大产出和稳定物价水平具有重要意义.

China＇s logistics cost has been higher than developed countries for a long time. High oilprice since 2010 promoted the increase of logistics costs. The impact of logistics cost on inflation receivedextensive concern, however there is little related quantitative research. This paper investigated the impactof logistics cost on output and price level in China by a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model（FAVAR）. The main findings are the following. First, logistics cost has a negative long-term impact on theoutput of main industrial products. Second, logistics cost has a positive effect on price levels, especially,CPI responses more significantly to logistics cost than PPI. Third, the impulse of logistics cost to CPI andPPI is mainly transmitted through food price. In a word, logistics cost is an important impetus to inflation,and reducing logistics cost is of great importance for expanding output and stabilizing price levels.