政府消费规模对经济增长的阈值效应

THE THRESHOLD EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION SCALE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

揭示政府消费规模对经济增长的效应变化是合理调控政府消费规模和有效配置政府公共资源的重要依据。本文利用1978—2011年的数据,运用阈值协整模型对我国政府消费规模与经济增长关系进行了实证研究。本文发现,二者存在阈值协整关系,且政府消费规模对经济增长的效应始终为负,当政府消费占GDP的比重下降至0.178 2(1978—1986年),政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应较小;当政府消费占GDP比重下降至0.178 2(1987年左右),政府消费规模对经济增长的效应发生非线性转移;随着政府消费规模的进一步降低(1996—2011年),政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应显著加强。实证结论表明,不断压缩政府消费规模有助于经济效率提升,尤其是将政府消费规模合理控制在临界值0.178 2以下,可以更好地发挥政府消费对经济增长的促进作用。

. Revealing the variation of effect of government consumption scale on economic growth wasan important basis for reasonable regulating of government consumption scale and allocating of governmentpublic resources. By using the 1978--2011 data, and using threshold co-integration model for empirical re-search on the relationship between government consumption scale and economic growth, this paper foundthere existed threshold co-integration relation between government consumption scale and economicgrowth, and the effect of government consumption scale on the economic growth was always nega-tive. When the proportion of the government consumption account for GDP declined to 0. 1782 previouslyin the period of 1978--1986, the promotion effect of government consumption scale on economic growthwas smaller. When the proportion of the government consumption account for GDP fell to 0. 1782 around1987, the effect of government consumption scale on economic growth took place nonlinear transfer. Withfurther reducing government consumption scale, the promoting effect of government consumption scale oneconomic growth was significantly strengthened from 1996--2011. The empirical results showed continu-ously compressing the government consumption scale would improve economic efficiency, especially whenthe government consumption scale being controlled below critical value 0. 1782, the role of governmentconsumption promoting economic growth would get stronger.