预期管理理论的形成、演变与启示

THE FORMATION,EVOLUTION AND IMPLICATION OF THE THEORY OF MANAGEMENT OF EXPECTATION

本文从货币政策视角梳理了预期管理理论的形成与演变历程,探讨了对通胀预期管理的现实启示。本文研究发现,预期管理理论以货币政策可信度为核心,历经从规则与相机抉择之间的摇摆到融合政策承诺与中央银行沟通并形成前瞻性引导的过程,各种预期管理思想的引入均通过对货币政策施加各种约束,促进政策的动态一致性,提高公众预期形成的精确性。构建以新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型为基础的预期管理框架,改进以预期形成机制和金融体系的模型化为代表的模型结构,采用机制设计方法完善货币政策框架成为未来预期管理理论发展的重要方向。对于我国而言,加快以利率与汇率市场化改革为代表的金融改革,强化以价格稳定为核心的货币政策调控,并通过有效权衡稳增长、调结构与反通胀之间关系,塑造坚定的反通胀立场,形成以通胀目标为代表的名义锚。同时构造兼顾价格稳定与金融稳定的宏观审慎管理框架和中国特色的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,提高预期管理的可信度。

The paper summarized the formation and evolution of the theory of management of expecta-tion on the basis of the perspective of monetary policy, and discussed the implication for the managementof inflation expectation. The literature review showed that the theory of management of expectation focusedon the credibility of monetary policy and experienced from the swing between rules and discretion to thecombination of policy commitment with the communication of central bank and the formation of forwardguidance. The introduction of various kinds of thoughts of management of expectation promoted the timeconsistency of policy and increased the accuracy of expectations of the public by the imposition of variouskinds of constraints on monetary policy. There were several important directions of future research on thetheory of management of expectation the construction of the framework on the basis of New-KeynesianDSGE models, the improvement of the model structure by the representative of the formation of expecta-tion mechanism and the modeling structure of the financial system, and the application of mechanism de-sign to advance the framework of monetary policy. To the management of inflation expeetation in China,the government should speed up financial reform by the representative of the market-oriented reform of in-terest rate and exchange rate, strengthen the price stability as core of monetary policy adjustment, sharp-en the firm stance of anti-inflation and form the nominal anchor by representative of the inflation target bythe effective balance of the stability of economic growth, the adjustment of economic structure and anti-in-flation. Meanwhile, the government should construct the framework of the macro-prudential managementwhich both stabilized the price and finance system, and build the new Keynesian DSGE model with theChinese characteristics to enhance the credibility of the management of expectation.