弱势美元对中国贸易方式结构的影响

The Effect of the Weakening US Dollar on the Structure of China's Trade Forms

2002年以来美元大幅贬值、人民币反向升值,推高了中国外贸成本。使用CEIC季度数据考察弱势美元对中国贸易方式结构的影响发现:在弱势美元下,中国进口贸易方式结构相对更加优化,美元兑人民币实际贬值会使中国一般贸易出口与进料加工出口减少,但来料加工装配出口并未因美元贬值和人民币升值而减少。由此,弱势美元并没有促进中国出口贸易方式结构的优化。同期,美元兑人民币实际贬值使得中国进料加工进口和海关特监区域物流货物进口减少。

US dollar has had a large depreciation and RMB has had an opposite appreciation since 2002, which has propelled the rise of China's foreign trade cost. We use the quarterly data from CEIC to examine the effect of the weakening US dollar on the structure of China's trade forms. The findings show that firstly, along the weakening US dollar, China's import share and export share in ordinary trade appear in a rising trend with a fluctuation, and its import share of ordinary trade is higher. The import share and the export share of China 's processing trade with imported materials emerge a consistent trend of first rising then falling, with its lower import share. The import share and the export share of China's processing and assembling trade appear in consistent falling, and almost overlapped. In contrast, the trade form structure of China 's import is relatively better following with a weakening US dollar. Secondly, it is proved that the depreciation of real exchange rate of US dollar against RMB has decreased China's export in ordinary trade and decreased its processing export with imported materials. However, China's export of processing and assembling has not decreased along the depreciation of US dollar and the appreciation of RMB. Thus, a weakening US dollar has not promoted the structure optimiza-tion of China's export form.