国际资本流入变动与我国经济增长风险关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Changes in International Capital Inflows and Risk of China's Economic Growth

通过对外国直接投资（FDI）、外国证券投资（FPI）、外债和经济增长的有关数据分析，发现这些数据序列问存在着典型的非线性关系，随后以中国1983～2012年的统计数据为例，通过构建我国国际资本流入一经济增长系统的VAR模型，对我国FDI、FPI外债和经济增长之间的关系进行了分析，充分考虑了四个变量之间的非线性作用，展示了四个变量之间的互相影响。通过实证分析阐述了国际资本流入变动与我国经济增长风险关系，揭示了两者的复杂作用机制，并以此为依据提出我国国际资本流入与经济增长良性互动的政策建议。

Based on the foreign direct investment （FDI）, foreign portfolio investment （FPI）, and the analysis of datarelated to external debt and economic growth, this paper found that a typical nonlinear relationship exists between thesedata sequence, then using the statistical data of Chinese 1983-2012 as an example, by constructing a VAR model ofChina＇s international capital inflows and economic growth system, the relationship between FDI, FPI, Chinese externaldebt and economic growth are analyzed. This paper also considers the nonlinear interaction between the four variables,demonstrates the mutual influence between the four variables. Through the empirical analysis of the relationship betweenthe changes in international capital inflows and the risk in Chinese economic growth, this paper reveals the complexrole of the two mechanisms, and uses it as the basis of the policy recommendations of benign interaction betweeninternational capital inflows and China＇s economic growth.