京津冀都市圈经济增长与生态环境关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Ecological Environment of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan

经济增长会导致一定程度的环境污染,造成对生态环境的破坏。文章采用向量自回归模型(VAR模型)对京津冀都市圈内表征经济增长和环境污染指标的时序数据进行协整、脉冲响应及方差分解分析,研究了都市圈经济增长与生态环境的关系及其动态性。研究表明,京津冀都市圈内各地区经济增长与生态环境之间存在长期均衡关系。脉冲响应分析表明区域经济增长与生态环境质量之间存在着双向作用力,区域生态环境质量对区域经济增长的反馈效应具有滞后性;方差分解表明区域经济增长在生态环境方差解释方面起关键作用,由工业污染引起的环境质量下降一定程度上抑制经济增长。

Economic growth will lead to environmental pollution to a certain extent, and thus cause damages to ecologicalenvironment. Based on VAR model, this paper uses co-integration analysis, impulse response analysis and variancedecomposition analysis on the time series data representing the indicators of economic growth and environmentalpollution of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan, and studies the relationship and dynamism between economic growthand ecological environment of the metropolitan. The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationshipbetween economic growth and ecological environment of the metropolitan. Impulse response analysis shows that there is a two-way interaction between regional economic growth and ecological environment quality and that the feedback effects of regionalecological environment quality has a lagging effect on regional economic growth; Variance decomposition analysis shows thatregional economic growth plays a key role in explaining the variance of ecological environment and that the decreasing ofenvironmental quality caused by industrial pollution inhibits the economic growth to some extent.