摘要
以国际贸易和外商直接投资（FDI）作为反映全球化的主要标志，使用全球95个国家1973～2010年的跨国面板数据进行回归，研究发现，石油价格波动并没有改变全球化的进程和方向，但却在一定程度上放缓了全球化的速度。并主要显现于2002年以来的石油价格连续上涨周期中。因市场因素而引起的石油价格波动，与全球化速度有着确定的相关性，而因政治或军事性事件引起的石油价格波动。与全球化速度之间的相关性不大。研究结果还显示，石油价格波动对于全球贸易增速的负面影响要大于对全球投资增速的影响，石油价格的迅速上涨．可能会导致国际贸易的“邻里效应”出现。
This paper examines the effects of international oil price volatility on economicglobalization. Using a large panel data covering 95 countries from the world from 1973 to2010, it finds that the fluctuation of oil price does not change the process and direction ofglobalization. However, it inhibits the speed of globalization, which is reflected in theperiod of ongoing oil price rise since 2002. The oil price volatility caused by market factorshas a positive relationship with the speed of globalization, but the oil price volatility causedby political or military events has no significant relationship. The further study showsthat the negative impact of oil price volatility on the global trade is greater than that on theglobal investment. The rapid rise of oil price may lead to the ＂neighborhood effect＂ ofinternational trade.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第8期64-76,共13页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(09AZD047)
东南大学优博培育对象基金项目(YBPY1406)
国家自科基金青年项目(71303206)
江苏省社科基金青年项目(13EYC023)
