中国经济转型期腐败治理宏观环境的PEST分析——基于1990-2012年面板数据分析

PEST Analysis on the Macro Environment for Anti-corruption in China's Economy Transformation Period——Based on the Panel Data from the Year of 1990 to 2012

伴随着经济转型的深化,中国腐败呈现高发态势。腐败治理是一项复杂的社会工程,其复杂性在于影响反腐成效的因素众多而难于筛选、各因素对治理腐败的具体影响难以评估。微观因素如反腐机构、反腐队伍等在反腐中固然重要,经济社会宏观环境也会产生巨大的影响,并且更加深远、持久。文章利用PEST分析法,从经济社会宏观环境中选取影响反腐成效的六个指标,在对1990-2012年面板数据进行统计分析的基础上,发现影响反腐成效的核心要素,并提出相关建议,以期实现反腐与社会发展的共赢。

With the deepening of economic transformation, corruption is high-incidence in China now. Anti-corruption is a complicated social project because of too many factors to find the effective influencing factors, and the effect of each factor against corruption is hard to estimate. Although the micro-factors are important for anti-corruption, such as anti-corruption in- stitutions and teams, the macro--factors of the socioeconomic environment are more fundamental and far-reaching. Using PEST analysis, the paper selects six macro-factors from the socioeconomic environment, and finds the core elements affecting the ef- fect of anti-corruption based on regression analysis of the panel data during the year of 1990 to 2012. It also offers some sugges- tions to achieve mutual benefits of both anti-corruption and social development.