区域振兴战略与中国工业空间结构变动——对中国工业企业调查数据的实证分析

Regional Revitalization Strategies and the Industrial Spatial Structure Changes in China——Evidence Based on China Industrial Survey Database

基于1998—2007年间年均222650家中国工业企业调查的面板数据,本文运用双重差分内差分方法研究了区域振兴战略对我国工业空间结构变动的影响。研究表明,运输基础设施、税收和其它区域振兴政策对我国工业空间分布有着显著影响,欠发达地区的实际税率降低10%、人均道路面积增加10%,则当地工业产出占全国的比重分别提高0.8%和0.5%;但这两项政策对不同产业的影响存在差异,税收政策影响的行业范围更为广泛。进一步研究发现,东部地区仍然拥有道路基础设施和税收等政策优势,工业主要集中在东部地区的事实没有根本性变化,但2004年以后有比较缓慢向中西部转移的趋势。中部崛起战略促进了中部省份承接东部地区转移的工业,特别是劳动力密集型产业,西部大开发战略对促进资源密集型产业在该地区的发展有一定效果,而东北振兴战略的效果较弱。为了实现区域经济的协调可持续发展,中国政府应该在税收、基础设施建设等方面加大对欠发达地区的支持力度。

To solve the problem of unbalanced regional economic development in China, the Chinese government has takenthree regional revitalization strategies, i.e. , the west development strategy, the revitalization of the Northeast, and the rise ofcentral China. This paper uses the 1998--2007 China industrial survey database and difference-in-difference model toinvestigate how the tax policy, transportation infrastructure and other regional revitalization strategies affect industrial spatialstructure. The results show that transport infrastructure and tax policies have significant effects on industrial spatial structure.If tax rate decreases by 10% or per Capital road increases by 10% in less developed areas, the ratio of local industrial outputto all country industrial output increases about 0.8% and 0.5% , respectively. The effect of infrastructure improvement andtax policy is different to various industries. The tax policy affects a wider range of industries. Further analyses reveal that theeastern region still has better road infrastructure and lower tax rate, and industries are mainly concentrated in the easternregion, but move slowly to the central and western region after 2004. The rise of central China strategy helps the area toabsorb industrial activities from the eastern coastal area, especially the labor-intensive industry. The west developmentstrategy promotes the development of resource-intensive industries in that region, while the revitalization of the north-eaststrategy has insignificant effect thus far. In order to realize more sustainable and balanced development of regional economy,the government should provide more supports, like tax reduction and infrastructure improvement, to the less developed areas.