中国煤炭补贴改革与二氧化碳减排效应研究

Research on Coal Subsidies Reform and CO_2 Emissions Reduction in China

提出到2020年,单位GDP的二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%一45%的减排目标,对于中国来说是一项艰巨的任务。由于补贴引起煤炭过度消耗是导致CO_2大量排放的主要原因之一,本文首先运用价差法估算了中国2007年煤炭补贴规模和补贴率;其次,以2007年投入产出表为基础构建了包含环境治理账户在内的社会核算矩阵,运用可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)模拟取消煤炭补贴产生的CO_2减排效应,并从经济结构和能源消费结构定量分析其减排机制。结果表明,取消煤炭补贴可以降低单位GDP二氧化碳排放1.78%。

China aims to cut CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40% to 45% from 2005 level by 2020. It is quite a challenging commitment. Now that coal subsidies are deemed as the main cause of excessive consumption of coal and CO2emissions, we use Prlce-Gap Approach to estimate the size of China＇s coal subsidies in the benchmark year. Then, we establish the Social Accounting Matrix extended with environmental restoration accounts based on 2007 China Input-Output table. Furthermore, an Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to stimulate the procedure of removing coal subsidies. We try to analyze the effect of CO2 emissions reduction from structural aspects： industrial structure and energy consumption structure. Results show that CO2 intensity in terms of GDP would he reduced by 1.78%.