空气质量与公共健康:以火电厂二氧化硫排放为例

Air Pollution and Public Health:Evidence from Sulfur Dioxide Emission of Coal-fired Power Stations in China

廓清工业气体排放对公共健康的影响有助于提高公共政策的质量和效率,但目前鲜有经济学文献对其效应进行系统且严谨的识别。医学领域文献大都基于个体或非随机样本且不考虑内生性问题,其所获结论和政策含义均需谨慎对待。为了弥补上述不足,本文基于地级市面板数据并利用3SLS实证检验火电厂二氧化硫排放对公共健康的影响。本文发现:首先,就影响来说,二氧化硫排放量每增加1%,万人中死于呼吸系统疾病及肺癌的人数将分别增加0.055和0.005。就绝对水平来看,二氧化硫排放每增加100万吨,万人中死于这两类疾病的人数分别增加0.5人和0.3人;其次,就生命损失及医疗费用来说,该气体每年造成的死亡人数在18万人左右,导致的相关治疗费用超过3000亿元。

Using prefectural panel data from China, this paper attempts to empirically test the impact of air pollution on public health. Resorting to 3SLS to handle the potential endogenous problem in sulfur dioxide emission, this paper finds significant negative effects of air pollution on public health： 1% increase in gas emission will lead to an increase in death from respiratory diseases and lung cancer per 10,000 by 0. 055 and 0. 005 respectively. As to absolute magnitude, every one million increase in sulfur dioxide emission will bring out an increase in death from respiratory diseases and lung cancer per 10,000 by 0. 5 and 0. 3 respectively. In sum, death and economic cost due to sulfur dioxide emission each year are 180 thousand and 300 billion RMB respectively.