北京市房地产泡沫状况与成因分析

Analysis on Causes and Conditions of Beijing Housing Bubble

对北京市房地产开发投资、固定资产投资、商品房销售情况进行量化分析,并计算地价与GDP、物价增长率的相关指标,据此分析北京市房地产市场的经济波动状况以及泡沫情况,并从价格预期、土地稀缺性、流动性膨胀、银行信贷非理性膨胀、税收政策几个方面对影响泡沫形成的因素进行分析,为相关市场参与者提供相关依据。

Conducting quantitative analysis on Beijing real estate development investment fixed assets investment and commercial housing sales situation,this article analyses the economic fluctuation and bubble situation of Beijing real estate market with a calculation of the growth rates of the land price,the GDP and the price index.Besides,it analyses the factors affecting the formation of bubbles from the view of price expectations,the scarcity of land,liquidity expansion,irrationality of bank credit,tax policy.It provides the relevant market participants related basis.